Economic Optimization of Innovation Risk eBook Robert Shuler
Download As PDF : Economic Optimization of Innovation Risk eBook Robert Shuler 
Subtitle A Theory of Crash Rate for Private & Public Projects with Critical or non-Critical systems.
Examine the first quantitative method for understanding managing the
crash rate of projects, vehicles, drivers, and critical systems - including unexpected effects! Examine possibilities for managing the crash rate of countries and even the world!
Analyzing & managing risk has been a quest for 5000 years, and is essential to everything from water supplies, finance, and agriculture to computers and space travel. At last there is a quantitative theory and a simple equation that allows you to
- Choose your failure rate
- Get there optimally
- Avoid unexpected effects
- Profit where the competition fails
- Work a project example based on real-world data to manage the risk of a for-profit 10-passenger transport to an orbital tourism facility.
- Solve the mystery of U.S. motorway death rates which are 4 times higher than Germany despite the unlimited speed Autobahn.
- Apply to a small personal project such as determining how much proofreading is necessary on an essay or book.
Economic Optimization of Innovation Risk eBook Robert Shuler
When this book was first suggested to me, I thought that it fell far afield of the type of book that I would normally read or enjoy, but as I dove into the philosophy and the strategies outlined in the book, it became clear that this unique perspective on managing risk was not limited to business or specific ventures, but to almost any decision in life. Optimizing your reactions to situations and protecting yourself in the event of failure are skills that can come in handy in many other areas of life. As a new business owner, I benefitted from the practical applications and the philosophical implications, and I have to hand it to Shuler - this isn't a topic that can be written about without being a boring, but he managed to hold my interest and give me plenty to think about by the time I finished. Nicely done and highly insightful.Product details
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Economic Optimization of Innovation Risk eBook Robert Shuler Reviews
This book offers an in-depth analysis of the economic impact of crashes. The proposed crash rate model gives a brilliant interpretation of how operational crash rate is affected by a number of key parameters, specifically value of features; cost of manufacturing, marketing and distribution; cost per crash; per-problem engineering cost; and defect ratio.
Shuler’s crash rate model builds upon risk compensation theory, giving project managers and process improvement specialists a readily applicable method to identify critical parameters that might behave differently than intuitively expected. The model might seem out-of-the-box, but the theory behind it is solid, and it appears to hold true across multiple disciplines from air travel safety, to software development, to manned spaceflight.
When I started reading, I was half-expecting another long-winded book on economic theory that spends hundreds of pages to reiterate what is already known. I was pleasantly surprised, as the author respects the reader’s time and intelligence, offering a succinct and insightful study with virtually zero repetition.
Bottom line this is a valuable read for any reader (professional or otherwise), who seeks to understand and anticipate crash risk.
The Economic Optimization of Innovation and Risk is written by Robert Shuler, an engineer with NASA, Avionic Systems Division, and at first blush, may appear to be a book extolling the virtues of a lofty concept, the economic optimization of innovation and risk otherwise understood to be the “crash rate theory”. Shuler’s book breaks down the concept into various stages; Approaches to Understanding Risk, Unexpected Outcomes, Development of the Theory, Analysis and Interpretation as well as Applying the Crash Rate Theory. The argument is that the concept of the crash rate theory is not just applicable to a business model but can also be applied to various paradigms like air travel safety as well as to crime or to war. In a nutshell, Shuler states that enhanced control over risk equals less of a loss – be it in lives or in money, etc.
While this book will most likely appeal to a specific audience, its message is straightforward there is relevance in the crash rate theory. This is especially brought home by the author’s chilling words, simply put as follows “The reader might wonder what the shoot down of MH 17 over Ukraine has to do with the theory of crash rate. Several things. First, the motivations and actions of the airline in deciding not to alter its flight path (several other airlines had already altered flight paths) was an economic one. Second, the reaction of the flying public to the twin crashes, the other being the mysterious disappearance of MH 370, was essentially the same as it would be to two clearly ‘at fault’ crashes. The public holds Malaysia Air responsible, and so does the crash rate equation.” How’s that for clear and succinct? There are other revelations in the book that are equally insightful, leaving readers believing that the crash rate theory isn’t a lofty concept after all…
(Note blue cover with flying & wrecked spacecraft is the author's 100 page book ... cover with capitol building and green bar is only a reprint of charts from NASA technology reports server - be sure you get the one you intend.)
The author proposes a crash rate equation that is based on corporate maximization of profit, and implies they will chase features and introduce bugs until there is no more profit. Sort of like individual risk compensation (more fatalities with no fault insurance is an example cited). Contrarian, but explains a lot of things. Supposedly the equation can help a corporation choose an operating point.
A new chapter in Extensions applies the crash rate equation to things other than corporations, with an example on how to use it for a small one person project. Then using a procedure for handling inhomogeneous data, an explanation of U.S. vs. German motorway death rates with implications for socioeconomic risk in the U.S. and the world.
As we get older, it seems that more and more things need to be analyzed, measured, and considered before making any decisions. As someone relatively unfamiliar with concepts of risk a few years ago, it has now become something I think about quite often. This book promotes a generally business and innovation-directed optimization strategy, but that doesn't mean that the same foundational concepts can't be applied to life for lay readers. I found this book to be a bit dense in certain parts for my particular interests, but it wasn't written for me. I will be able to glean the valuable lessons from some of the lighter, more general sections, and use those same concepts and strategies in the framework of my own life. I don't know if this is the sort of book that will ever be a big seller, as the target niche is small (but growing), but I'm certainly glad I stumbled across it.
When this book was first suggested to me, I thought that it fell far afield of the type of book that I would normally read or enjoy, but as I dove into the philosophy and the strategies outlined in the book, it became clear that this unique perspective on managing risk was not limited to business or specific ventures, but to almost any decision in life. Optimizing your reactions to situations and protecting yourself in the event of failure are skills that can come in handy in many other areas of life. As a new business owner, I benefitted from the practical applications and the philosophical implications, and I have to hand it to Shuler - this isn't a topic that can be written about without being a boring, but he managed to hold my interest and give me plenty to think about by the time I finished. Nicely done and highly insightful.
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